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Monday, January 3, 2011

Inside 2004-2012 Solar Window

By Will Hart

In an article published in AR, early in 2004, I presented the case that we are in the final leg of a solar cycle. I called the 8-year period from 2004 to 2012, ‘The Portal’. That article presented the results of 27 years of research into the Mayan calendar system, which led to investigations into the sunspot cycle, the transit of Venus and the their respective relationships to natural disasters.

The last pieces of the puzzle did not fall into place until 2002. That year, I finally realized that the 2012 end date of the Mayan calendar was also the peak of the next solar maximum and the second leg of the Venus Transit. Extensive research into the sunspot cycle had shown me that the 11-year solar maximums had multiple effects on the earth and on human beings. I found that everything from wars and natural disasters to fluctuations in the stock market move in tandem with the sunspot cycle.

Many other independent investigators had already reached similar conclusions. However, nobody that I was aware of had linked the Mayan calendar and the 2012 forecast with the sunspot cycle and Venus Transit. The connection gave me a new insight into what the term ‘Solar Priest’ really meant and what the basis of the ancient science actually was. In fact, the Maya made their science very clear. It revolved around a cyclical passage of ages they called ‘Suns’ – a time period of about 5125 years- and according to their system of reckoning we are near the end of the Fifth Sun.

When I fit the transit of Venus into the calendar system I was struck by the fact that the ancient priests were aware of a periodic, astronomical event that western science only discovered 300 years ago. Was it an accident that they selected the exact year (2012) when a number of important cycles converge to end their Long Count (5125-year) calendar? No, that seemed too improbable a coincidence to chalk up to chance. But like any serious investigator I wanted proof. So I went back and examined the historical record to see if there was any association between the Venus Transit and natural disasters.

What I found startled me. The findings also solved a mystery that had puzzled all investigators including myself. I was intrigued to discover that a transit of Venus had occurred on 1518-1526. Those dates were the bookmarks of the Conquest of Mexico by a handful of Spaniards led by Hernando Cortez. I had long scratched my head over just how 300 conquistadors managed to mount a military campaign against the extremely militaristic and successful Aztec Empire.

The key seemed to lie in the mysterious prophecy that the priests had made concerning the return of the god Quetzalcoatl in the year 1 Reed (151.

The god was associated with Venus and he was said to be a bearded, white man who had come to ancient Mexico bringing the gift of civilization. That may sound like a colorful myth to us but it had the potency of the apocalypse to the Aztecs when they learned that a strange vessel had arrived on the shores of the Yucatan. The warrior-emperor Montezuma was plunged into spiritual confusion and political paralysis.

The mystical side of this fascinating history never quite made sense to me. However, the strange fact is the Aztecs could have easily crushed the conquistadors if it were not for this prophecy.

As I dug ever more deeply into the history I learned that the Aztecs were rattled because other strange signs had already preceded Cortez’s arrival including the eruption of Mount Popocateptyl. In addition, a number of paranormal events had also occurred including UFO sightings and inexplicable flooding of their capitol city. The Aztec priests had forecast a dire end to their civilization at this time and, in fact, Cortez brought an end to the last pyramid-building civilization by the second leg of the transit of Venus in 1526.

The 2012 prophecy took on an entirely new meaning after I concluded this line of research. The next 8-year Venus Transit cycle took place in 1631-’39. I was astounded to find that, immediately following this transit, sunspots disappeared for 70 years. The period is known as the ‘little ice age’ the sunspot cycle resumed in 1720 and the levels of solar activity have increased since then with a sunspot peak in the 1960 solar maximum.

Now, here is where things begin to take a dramatic turn. If the Mayan priests were right, I reasoned that they were forecasting a solar ‘blow off’ that would culminate in 2012 with the converging sunspot cycle peak and the transit of Venus. At this point I turned to the record of natural disasters from 1900 to present. I must admit that what I found alarmed me. The number, frequency and magnitude of natural disasters from earthquakes and volcanic eruptions to severe storms increased dramatically after 1960.

Scientists try to hide this information from the public by focusing on the ‘averages’ instead of on the major and potentially catastrophic events. In other words, they use statistical averages, which are skewed by the large swarms of minor events, to conceal the upward trend of major volcanic events, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc., which have been rising for the past 45 years. We can only surmise that their reason for fudging the numbers - to obscure the increasing dynamism and instability of the planet - is to avoid alarming the general public.

In fact, we don’t care about the large number of small, non-threatening events, which has not changed much on the whole. We do care about the potentially catastrophic major events that my research revealed have increased dramatically. My contention is that the Maya priests accurately forecast that, as the sun reached this point in its long-term cycle, natural disasters would rise. After all the sun is the electromagnetic dynamo that drives the earth’s biosphere so we should not be surprised that when its output fluctuates we experience changes on the planet.

Now let’s compare some revealing data. There were only 2119 earthquakes recorded in the entire 19th century. A recent U.S.G.S report shows that there were 4,139 in 1970 alone. Does that not sound like a powerful upsurge? The largest earthquakes on record have all occurred since 1960, with the biggest taking place in Chile that year. We find that this trend is echoed by the increasing frequency of large-scale volcanic eruptions, severe storms, hurricanes and typhoons.

In fact, Mount Popocatpetyl began erupting in the 1990s after being dormant for centuries, as have other volcanoes in Mexico. There were very few volcanic eruptions in the first half of last century. Then after 1960 many dormant volcanoes began coming to life and the activity over the past decade and a half has been extraordinarily intense. Take a look at the tornado chart below
TORNADOS
1950's 4796
1960's 6813
1970's 8580
1980's 8196
1990 to date 10,000+

The decade and even year by year increase in the number of ‘killer’ tornadoes is even more significant. There were 13 in 1996 and 28 in 1998. According to a report released on September 17, 2004 by UN-ISDR – the United Nations disaster reduction agency – there has been a global spike in worldwide natural and manmade catastrophes. The report said that more than 254 million people were affected by "natural disasters" in 2003. This is an almost three-fold jump from 1990.

According to statistics from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters at the University of Louvain in Belgium, "The long-term trend over the past decade shows a steady rise in victims." This concurs with statements made by the head of Zurich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company that I quoted in my earlier piece. He summed up the situation by saying that ‘natural disasters have been a growth industry since 1960’.

Our scientists are discovering what the ancients seemed to have known long ago, the earth goes through periodic cycles when natural disasters rise dramatically.

What they have not yet learned is that these cycles are tied to the short and long term fluctuations in solar output. I believe that this is the essence of the ancient solar science that I have re-discovered. Do not get me wrong, I have not invented anything and I am not making any claims or insinuating that I created this predictive science.

This system was developed long ago, of that I am sure. Be that as it may, the accumulated evidence and ongoing events ought to command our attention. We are counting down to 2012 and the earth is rocking, rolling, spewing clouds of ash, fuming hot gases, and sending molten lava streaking down the sides of mountains.

In my earlier article I made a number of predictions and I asked to be held accountable. That is the only way to publicly establish the validity of my findings. I said that we would start to experience an acceleration of natural disasters after the first leg of the June 2004 transit of Venus. That would be the point of entry into the portal era; we are in it now. So what does the record show?

There has been an absolutely staggering increase in volcanic activity. It began on June 22, the day after the transit when the Ijen volcano in Java, Indonesia became active. That was followed on June 29 by an eruption of the Bezymianny volcano in Russia.
July brought eruptions to 8 volcanoes spread around the world from Japan and Central America to Indonesia. August saw eruptions taking place in the Southern Atlantic Ocean, Papua

New Guinea and Indonesia. Do not be fooled, this is not a normal level of activity over such a short time span. The increased frequency of volcanism continued with activity greatly intensifying in September. An alarming 15 volcanoes showed increased levels of activity from swarms of tremors to small and medium size eruptions.

In this month alone, Mt Aetna in Italy, Mauna Loa in Hawaii and Mt. Kiki in Japan sprang to life along with volcanoes in Columbia, Alaska, Indonesia, the Congo and Russia. The trend has continued into October. As I write, Mount St. Helens is roaring back to life and Mt. Rainer is displaying more activity. On October 5, an astonishing TEN volcanoes became active on the same day that Mt. St. Helens quaked, smoked and spewed ash. At present 11 volcanoes around the globe have ongoing volcanic and seismic activity including St. Helens.
Large and major earthquakes show a similar upward trend as the following figures show.

Earthquake Activity (June-Oct 8, 2004)
June 10 -- Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia - 6.9M
June 28 -- Illinois -- 4.2M
June 28 -- Southeastern Alaska -- 6.8M
July 01 -- Eastern Turkey -- 5.2M
July 24 -- Southern Sumatra Indonesia -- 7.3M
September 05 -- Near the South Coast of Western Honshu, Japan -- 7.2M
September 05 -- Near the South Coast of Honshu, Japan -- 7.4M
September 28 -- Central California -- 6.0M
October 08 -- Solomon Islands -- 6.8M
October 08 -- Mindoro, Philippines -- 6.5M
October 09 -- Near the Coast of Nicaragua -- 6.

In addition, we have just gone through one of the worst hurricane seasons on record. If we were to go back five and six decades we would find levels of significant volcanic and seismic activity far below the above. This points up the fact that the intensity and frequency of major events have been increasing steadily every decade since 1960.

This increased activity conforms to the predictions made by the Mayan priests. It should culminate between 2010 and 2012. Does this mean that the world is going to end and all life will be wiped out?
The 2012 prophecy does not say that life comes to an end, only that the age that we have been living in for 5,000 years ends. We have already been witnessing rapid changes around the globe.

The old USSR collapsed and religious fundamentalism is on the rise, not just in Moslem countries the Religious Right in the United States already controls the Republican Party. Our environment is deteriorating and we seem to be coming up short in terms of finding solutions to our mounting crises. According to my research the period from the end of this decade until 2012 we be one of increasing social unrest and international conflict.

The point of all this is not to create an atmosphere of anxiety. We need to use this knowledge and these predictions to prepare for the approaching chaotic era. The signs are in place and the handwriting is on the wall. In fact, if you have been paying attention, our scientists have been studying, monitoring and trying to formulate models that accurately predict volcanoes, earthquakes and other natural disasters over the past decade. There is an urgency animating geologists that the general public is not aware of.

They know that something is going on. Solar physicists were also stunned a year ago when the sun suddenly burst into a brief period of super-intense flares and storms.

It was not supposed happen because we just went through a sunspot cycle from 1999-2001 and the sun should be calming down as it moves toward the solar minimum (2005-’06). This too shows that we are in an unpredictable era because the sun is shifting its output as the ancient solar priest’s forecast it would at this time…

[PS- Update: On Dec. 26, 2004 one of the four largest earthquakes on record a 9.0 caused a tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Earthquake and volcanic activity remain high]



2006 Earthquake Prediction Trends

By Lance Winslow

Earthquakes in 2005 set the pace early on, even days before 2005 got underway, as the Sumatra Earthquake created such an incredible landscape change that it sent a Tsunami barreling to shore in Indonesia. This Earthquake had 5.0 or greater aftershocks for six months. But that was hardly the only Earthquakes on our globe in 2005. Japan, which usually sees lots of seismic activity had nearly twice as many as usual. In Pakistan near the Kashmir Border 79,000 people lost their lives in 2005. There were also major Earthquakes in Peru, Columbia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico and the Caribbean along with the Volcanic Activity, which follows and precedes such natural disasters in that region. We have seen Earthquake swarms around and near Mt. St. Helen minor eruption, as well and some notable activity in Earthquake prone California.

Scientists are predicting that 2006 will be a year of many Earthquakes and forewarn us of overdo timelines for Mexico City, San Francisco Bay Area, Alaska, Seattle and outside Memphis, TN. Of course even though we are learning so much from our studies of Earthquake both from CalTech and University of Tokyo, Japan; scientists still cannot pinpoint when these quakes will happen, only that they will. In studying these quakes and volcanic counterparts, Geo Scientists are pretty certain that the Earthquake trends of 2005 will continue and increase throughout 2006. There will be some large quakes this year. Think on this.

"Lance Winslow" - Online Think Tank forum board. If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance; http://www.WorldThinkTank.net/wttbbs/

Article Source:http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Lance_Winslow


2012 completes 74,000 year cycle of super volcano

2012 completes a 74,000 year cycle of super volcano – all signs point towards a massive under water eruption

India Daily Technology Team
Jan. 8, 2006

The underwater volcanoes are increasing exponentially. The harmonic tremors are also on a steep rise. A 74,000 year cycle of devastating super volcano nears as we approach 2012. The December 2004 Tsunami epicenter points towards a possible site for the super volcano.

According to some geologists, it is possible that the recent Tsunami is precursor to a massive shift in tectonic plates and a super volcanic eruption in that area dwarfing what happened even 74,000 years back.

The year 2012 is specially mentioned in many ancient civilizations as something to be scared about. Many believe that will the year when human civilizations will be threatened. It is the year some say when the whole human civilization will change forever.

74,000 years back a massive volcano in Sumatra filled the earth’s atmosphere with dark cloud for years. The event reduced the world temperature by 8 to 10 degrees Celsius. Close to 80% of the living beings including humans were dead on the earth. According legends among Indonesia tribes, the calamity was accompanied.

The super eruptions can cause massive calamity devastating all vegetations and farming in the earth causing massive starvation and hunger.

According to some geologists, the next one is due around 2012 based on that 74,000-year cycle. Many are pointing towards Yellow Stone National Park in America where Earth’s crust is wafer thin in geological scale.

Mount St. Helens has started erupting. The Geological calm of the world is extremely disturbed. Tsunamis, Landslides, Minor earthquakes in tune of thousands are shaking the whole world’s tectonic plates.

Most countries are reporting unusual weather patterns and excessive major and minor quakes. In many parts of the world lakes are losing their water and manifesting a sinkhole. Mud volcanoes and geysers in Yellow Stone National Park are manifesting excessive temperature rise and increased frequencies of eruptions.

Source:
http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/6320.asp

Earth Changes, 2012 and Eschatology pt. 1

by Jonathan McGregor Bethel

Considering all the earthquakes, volcanic activity, and extreme weather we have been experiencing, it's hard not to have apocalyptic thoughts and speculate that we may be approaching the end of time. It is very telling that many cultures have prophecies and calendars that focus on our current world age. These prophecies predict that our current time will be a period of great strife and transformation; they further predict this chaos will precede the creation of a new form of mankind.

I am endeavoring to present a series of articles delineating earth changes, eschatology, and the year 2012. I will discuss the nuances of our rapidly transforming biosphere, and I will describe the advent of the noosphere, a layer of collective synchronous thought surrounding the planet. I seek to present the facts as they are, how they are related to our current outlook, and what could be on the horizon. However, I also desire to dispel the fear about our approach to this radical shift and describe what it “could” mean for us.

Why is 2012 related to the end of the world? To look at this as the “End” and not the beginning of a new cycle doesn't fit what is really happening. There are several lines of thought that point to the year 2012 as a period of radical transformation and the culmination of human history.

First of all, it is during this year that the Maya 13 baktun long-count calendar has its termination point - December 21, 2012 - the winter solstice. This 13 baktun calendar began on August 12, 3114 B.C., and its duration is 1/5 of a precession, a 26,000 year period. John Major Jenkins discovered that the 2012 end-date coincides with an alignment with the galactic center. Consequently, after 26,000 years we are completing a cycle, and we are realigning with the galactic center; this is the wake-up call for human history.

Secondly, Terence McKenna's “TimeWave Zero”, which is based on the Chinese system of the I-Ching and maps the fluctuation between habit and novelty, is the other belief system which points to this date. The “TimeWave” reaches infinite novelty at the same time as the end-date of the Calendar of the Maya during late 2012. In other words, what it says is the complexity of modern life reaches it zenith on this date, and mankind enters a new phase of being. There are various other intimations and prophecies of 2012, and we will discuss them later in this series.

There is evidence to suggest that 2012 will coincide with what is expected to be a very active year for sunspots. Some predictions even state that the sun is going through a magnetic pole shift, and this pole reversal may be brought about by the extreme solar activity of 2012.

If this were to occur on the sun, it could bring about a devastating situation on the earth, including a pole shift. This pole shift on the earth may be actually occurring whether the sun shifts poles or not. One thing is for certain. The extreme weather we have been witnessing appears to be a direct influence from all the anomalous solar activity, not just the human induced “Global Warming” many are claiming.

In spite of that, it may very well be that the sun is emitting evolution altering energy, torsion-wave energy, and mutating us all into beings capable of operating in a new and higher existence. This is the perspective of several researchers; although, I don't think you will get any reductionist scientists agreeing with that. True or untrue, we should remain open-minded until we find out otherwise. Main stream science would consider this to be preposterous. We shall see; this evidence, including the extreme weather is not bogus and cannot be faked. It appears that we humans veil the unknown and uncertain in ominous imagery out of our own fear. Therefore, because we're in a time of rapid change, a disintegrating biosphere, extreme weather, and an uncertain future, the 2012 end-date takes on threatening and apocalyptic image.

On the other hand, we have others who think they have it all figured out, thinking things will remain the same as always, and that we have nothing to fear. These two perspectives are typical of human beings and get us nowhere. We need to face all of this with open yet discriminating minds, without casting doom on everything we hear and without being so self-assured that we think we have it all figured out. We need to take in the facts as they become apparent and make decisions accordingly.

Whatever the facts are, we need to be creating spiritual ideals and treating the others around us with the kindness we would like to receive, creating a positive morphic thought field and influencing the course of events in a beneficial way. This way, we will be in the best frame of mind to meet any challenges that may arise. If nothing happens, wonderful, we're all better off with our benevolent behavior!

Jonathan McGregor Bethel
Writer, Researcher, Lecturer
Founder, Omega Point Institute

Source: http://jonathanmcgregorbethel.spaces.live.com


Recent Sumatra earthquakes precursor to probable mega Volcano in 2012 that can end human civilization

Toba in Sumatra experienced the massive volcano of VEI 8.0 – super volcano 74,000 years back. The deep Java trench marks the line where the Indo-Astralian plate subducts, i.e. slips under, the section of the Eurasian plate on which Indonesia sits. While sinking, the Indo-Australian plate heats up and its water content turns to superheated steam under enormous pressure. Prodigious energies are generated and the volcanoes on the fault line release a part of these energies. The speed of that push is 70 mm (2.75 in.) per year, adding up to more than 5 km (3.1 miles) in the 73,000 years since the last major Toba eruption.

According to computer models, somewhere near Toba, along the fault line there may be another super volcano getting ready for eruption. 3.1 mile sinking of Indo-Australian plate under the Euresian Plate in the last 74,000 years has created enough magma for a super volcano.

The recent series of volcanoes in that area have increased the level of alarm. Some of the quakes mistaken as aftershocks were harmonic tremors signifying lava movements. If Toba or along Toba the volcanic eruption take place, it can bring the human civilization to its knees. This has the potential 3000 cubic Kilometer of eruption. That can be so devastating that earth may experience a drop in temperature of 30degrees Fahrenheit for many years. It can actually larger than the one Toba experienced 74,000 years back.

Simultaneous Terrestrial and Solar polar reversal in 2012 accompanied by recent tectonic movement as well as harmonic tremor in the area shows high probability of a mega volcano in 2012 in that area.

Source: http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/2282.asp

5 Natural Disasters Headed for the United States

5 Natural Disasters Headed for the United States

By Jim Gorman
Source: http://www.popularmechanics.com



Earth is one rough place. Even the most devastating storms of recent years pale in sheer destructive power against outsize natural disasters of the past, such as continent-smothering ice sheets, ocean-raising floods, super volcanoes and the occasional asteroid. Because cataclysms will always be a regular feature of life on Earth, PM consulted with leading scientists to detail five more disasters that may be in store. Some will be beyond human control; others could be disasters of our own making. Either way, prepare for a real doozy.

40-Mile-Long Mudslide, Washington State Movin' Mountain
On an overcast afternoon high on Mount Rainier, a rocky slope slumps and then cuts loose from the mountain. Small rock slides are common on the volcano's steep flanks, but this one is different. Most of Mount Rainier's west face is in motion. Into the tumbling maelstrom go millions of tons of ice from the Puyallup and Tahoma glaciers. House-size rocks disintegrate in the downward crush. “With Rainier's active hydrothermal system saturating the rock, the landslide would reach the base of the slope as a flowing mass of watery, muddy debris,” says Kevin Scott, scientist emeritus at the U.S. Geological Survey's Cascade Volcano Observatory (CVO).
So a lahar is born--a volcanic mudflow--and a nightmare realized for the approximately 150,000 Washington residents who live and work on the solidified debris of past flows. The mass of roiling mud, rock and trees, traveling at 60 mph, would quickly funnel into the canyons of the Puyallup and Carbon rivers, where it would rise 180 ft. high before spreading into the lowlands as a 15-ft. wave. The 5000 residents of Orting, at the rivers' confluence, would have less than 45 minutes to evacuate. People downstream, in towns such as Puyallup and Sumner, might have twice that long.
Despite its iconic standing, 14,410-ft. Mount Rainier is pocked with corroded, unstable rock capped by a cubic mile of ice and snow. The mountain--weakened from the inside out by acids resulting from upwelling magma--has partially collapsed many times in the last 5600 years, unleashing mudflows that have inundated five of six major drainages. Six of those lahars surged at least 45 miles to reach Puget Sound.
The USGS gives a 1-in-7 chance of a similar event occurring in anyone's lifetime. And, says Dan Dzurisin, a CVO geologist: “There's no guarantee there would be any advance warning.”

80-Ft.-High Tsunami, Atlantic Coast Coast Buster


A massive collapse of Cumbre Vieja in the Canary Islands would cause a tsunami to radiate all the way across the Atlantic Ocean to the East Coast. PHOTOGRAPH BY J. SCHWAKE/ALAMY

Cumbre Vieja, the most active volcano in the Canary Islands, lurches as a violent earthquake wracks its upper slopes. A third of the mountain breaks away and plunges into the Atlantic Ocean, pushing up a dome of water nearly 3000 ft. high. They don't yet know it, but tens of millions of Americans from Key West, Fla., to South Lubec, Maine, have just 9 hours to escape with their lives.
The collapse of Cumbre Vieja unleashes a train of enormous waves traveling at jetliner speed. The first slam into nearby islands, then the African mainland. By the time they reach the East Coast of North America, the waves are up to 80 ft. high, and in low-lying areas, sweep several miles inland.
When tsunamis strike the United States, it is usually Hawaii or Alaska that take the hit. But topography and population density put the East Coast in a special risk category. “More Easterners are exposed to potential tsunamis--from the Canary Islands or the Cape Verde Islands--than the people on the West Coast, which has a steep coastline and few lowlands,” says Steven Ward, a geophysicist at the University of California, Santa Cruz. A Cumbre Vieja eruption in 1949 opened a mile-long, 20-ft.-deep fissure near the crest, forcing the volcano's western face to slump several feet. A 1971 eruption didn't budge it.
Marine geologists at Southampton Oceanography Center in Great Britain have a different take. They conclude the volcano would collapse in stages-- at worst threatening nearby islands. Ward calculates only a 5 percent chance Cumbre Vieja will trigger a tsunami in a given century, but that when it does a chunk of earth 15 miles long, 9 miles wide and nearly 1 mile thick will plunge into the sea--a landslide 250 times larger than the collapse of Mount St. Helens.

The tsunami's probable trajectory within 5 hours of the collapse of Cumbre Vieja.

The tsunami's potential range of destruction 9 hours after the collapse of Cumbre Vieja
Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake, Mississippi River Valley Stress Test

The New Madrid Seismic Zone, which extends into five states, is part of a rift that formed more than 500 million years ago when tectonic forces began pulling the continent apart.

Ten miles beneath Caruthersville, Mo., stress along an ancient rift zone releases in a violent spasm. Shock waves from the magnitude 6.9 earthquake roll 160 miles up the Mississippi River Valley to St. Louis, and 75 miles downriver to Memphis, Tenn. The soils under Memphis ripple like a shook rug. Century-old brick buildings heave, then crumble. Sewer and water lines rupture. Gaslines snap. Downtown, the 14-story federal building, a decade overdue for quakeproofing, rains 3-ton panels.

While all eyes are fixed on California as the site of the next “Big One,” damage from a quake along the New Madrid Fault--which runs for 150 miles between Marked Tree, Ark., and Cairo, Ill.--may be greater. The hot, shattered crust beneath California absorbs seismic energy quickly and focuses it at an epicenter, says Gary Patterson, a geologist at the University of Memphis. But, he says, “the relatively hard, cold slab of rock beneath the central U.S. allows that energy to travel great distances.” A quake's impact zone is at least 10 times larger on the New Madrid Fault than on the San Andreas, and its shock waves reverberate longer.
The New Madrid Fault has produced the strongest earthquakes in the contiguous states: three tremors near magnitude 8.0 that struck from December 1811 to February 1812. Odds of a quake of that scale are small: 7 to 10 percent in the next 50 years. But factor in unprepared citizens and infrastructure and even a 6.0 earthquake, which has a 25 to 40 percent chance of occurring, would be a disaster.
“There's a lot about the New Madrid we don't know,” Patterson says. “But what we do know is very concerning.”
195-MPH Hurricane, Florida
Tropical Terror

Packing maximum sustained winds of 195 mph, Hurricane Lyle slams into Coral Gables just south of Miami. The breadth and intensity of the storm dazzles meteorologists, who rank it the strongest hurricane ever to hit the U.S. mainland.
On the north side of the storm's eye, Miami Beach, which has the second highest housing density in the country, is in shambles. Many residents don't evacuate, believing they are safe in concrete high-rises. They are wrong. Then it is too late, as the causeways connecting them to the mainland wash out. Waves riding a 15-ft. storm surge gut oceanfront condos up to the third story; windows blow out, allowing wind and rain to ravage upper floors. The storm surge sweeps over the island, carrying wreckage into downtown Miami, where the 70-story Four Seasons Hotel and Tower is reduced to a sodden shell.

Low-lying coastal areas would be hit twice by a supercharged storm—as waves rushed in and then back out. PHOTORAPH BY WARREN FAIDLEY/CORBIS
Block after block of homes in Coral Gables, West Miami and Sweetwater--many not yet retrofitted to the tough codes imposed after Hurricane Andrew in 1992--are blasted down to roofless frames. Waist-deep floodwater inundates areas as far north as Fort Lauderdale. Insured losses exceed $100 billion--nearly twice the amount caused by Katrina--making Lyle the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.
Katrina should have been a wakeup call, but coastal development has continued unabated, exposing the 4 million people in Florida's Miami-Dade and Broward counties to deadly monster storms. Warm water is rocket fuel for hurricanes, and global warming is predicted to heat tropical oceans by 4 F in the next century. Sea surface temperatures in the tropics have already risen by about 1 F since 1970.
Researchers at Georgia Tech and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., have measured a near doubling in the annual number of Category 4 and 5 storms during the past 35 years. And Kerry Emanuel, professor of meteorology at MIT, has found that Atlantic storms today wield twice the destructive force as those in 1970.

Wind speeds increase with altitude, and so a Category 4 storm at ground level can be a full category higher at the top of a building. While the storm surge scours the first two stories, overpressure blows out windows in the highest floors, exposing the interiors to wind and rain.

Some scientists dispute the global warming-hurricane connection. They attribute the intensity of recent hurricanes to natural cycles, or they contest the accuracy of early data and the objectivity of techniques used to analyze it.
Supercharged or not, hurricanes promise to wreak unprecedented damage in the decades ahead for one simple reason: More people have put themselves in harm's way. Coastal zones from Texas to North Carolina have gained 24 million residents since 1950.
Climate-Changing Ocean Disruption, North Atlantic
Sea Change

Winters in the Northeast begin to bite with a ferocity last seen during the deep freezes of 1936 and 1978, when icebreakers plied the Mississippi and Hudson rivers. Winter temperatures in Washington, D.C., begin to approximate those of Boston. Extreme drought grips the Midwest, sending grain commodity prices soaring; crops fail and farmers spin into bankruptcy. Climate patterns go haywire. London, Paris and the Scandinavian capitals shiver through their coldest winters since 1850. Summer monsoons in India and China weaken, affecting harvests that feed hundreds of millions of people. Fisheries decline when plankton populations collapse. Drought and flood push worldwide agricultural losses to $250 billion.
The cause of the big chill is an unlikely culprit: global warming. The northeastern States, eastern Canada and, primarily, Europe enjoy warmer climates than they otherwise would because of an ocean-based system of heat delivery called thermohaline circulation. This vast ocean conveyor sweeps warm, salty water from tropical latitudes north along the surface. After shedding heat to the atmosphere, the chilled brine becomes denser and sinks. Thousands of feet beneath the surface it flows back toward the equator, completing the loop.

Freshwater melt from the Greenland ice sheet contributes to a layer of buoyant water that is beginning to cap the North Atlantic Ocean. PHOTOGRAPH BY BLICKWINKEL/ALAMY
But as the climate warms disproportionately at the poles, the gears of the system begin to wobble. Freshwater runoff from Greenland's ice cap and from melting glaciers across the Arctic, combined with increased precipitation, could form a thick, buoyant cap over the North Atlantic. Already, the great gyre may be sputtering. The surface of the North Atlantic is becoming noticeably less salty, and thus less driven to sink.
Thermohaline circulation shut down as recently as 8200 years ago, and some scientists contend that the Little Ice Age of 1300 to 1850 was due to a hiccup in the system. The chance of another collapse is hotly debated. Terrence Joyce, a senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, calls it “unlikely” if Greenland's ice cap continues to melt at the current pace. However, “Greenland is a wild card,” he says--its melt rate remains unpredictable. Michael Schlesinger, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, calculates a 45 percent chance of the system shutting down in the next century if nothing is done to slow global warming.

Cold, dense water typically sinks near the Arctic and flows in deep currents to the equator. When this cycle is disrupted, warm water is not pushed as far north along the surface.
Ice core samples indicate the switch from temperate to bitter could be measured in mere years--and last for centuries. The timing of such an event will determine the severity of its consequences. “If the shutdown happens 100 years from now, it will bring us back to where we are now, canceling 4 to 6 F of atmospheric warming [predicted] in the Northeast,” Joyce says. “If it happened tomorrow, that would be something more significant.”